OBJECTIVE: Evidence regarding the relationship between the hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and glycemic conversion outcomes in individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is still limited. Our study aims to explore the role of HSI in the reversion to normoglycemia or the progression to diabetes among Chinese IFG individuals. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis using data from 11,327 IFG individuals who had undergone wellness examinations at Rich Healthcare Group. To analyze the association between the baseline HSI and glucose status conversion, a Cox regression model was used, and the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed. A generalized additive model was used to examine non-linear relationships. A two-piecewise binary logistic regression model was employed to further elucidate the non-linearity. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were also conducted. RESULTS: Over an observation period spanning 33,892 person-years, the rate of normoglycemia reversion was found to be 41.75%, whereas the rate of progression to diabetes was 11.63%. After accounting for potential confounding variables, our analysis demonstrated that among IFG individuals, there was an inverse relationship between HSI and the likelihood of returning to normoglycemia (HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90-0.96, P <
0.001), and a positive association between the HSI and progression to diabetes (HR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.40-1.58, P <
0.001). The smooth curve-fitting plot revealed a nonlinear association between the HSI and diabetes progression, with inflection points at 26.55 and 40.74. Sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis confirmed the stability of the study's findings. CONCLUSION: HSI was significantly linked to normoglycemia reversion and diabetes progression in IFG individuals, indicating its potential as a risk indicator for diabetes and a guide for prevention strategies. However, further research is needed to confirm this.