Testing Ambiguity and Machina Preferences Within a Quantum-theoretic Framework for Decision-making

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Tác giả: Diederik Aerts, Suzette Geriente, Catarina Moreira, Sandro Sozzo

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 003.56 Decision theory

Thông tin xuất bản: 2017

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 161552

Comment: 19 pages, 1 figure, standard LaTex. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1612.08583, arXiv:1510.09058The Machina thought experiments pose to major non-expected utility models challenges that are similar to those posed by the Ellsberg thought experiments to subjective expected utility theory (SEUT). We test human choices in the `Ellsberg three-color example', confirming typical ambiguity aversion patterns, and the `Machina 50/51 and reflection examples', partially confirming the preferences hypothesized by Machina. Then, we show that a quantum-theoretic framework for decision-making under uncertainty recently elaborated by some of us allows faithful modeling of all data on the Ellsberg and Machina paradox situations. In the quantum-theoretic framework subjective probabilities are represented by quantum probabilities, while quantum state transformations enable representations of ambiguity aversion and subjective attitudes toward it.
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