Inference for Impulse Responses under Model Uncertainty

 0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả: Lenard Lieb, Stephan Smeekes

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 511.4 Approximations formerly also 513.24 and expansions

Thông tin xuất bản: 2017

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 161588

In many macroeconomic applications, confidence intervals for impulse responses are constructed by estimating VAR models in levels - ignoring cointegration rank uncertainty. We investigate the consequences of ignoring this uncertainty. We adapt several methods for handling model uncertainty and highlight their shortcomings. We propose a new method - Weighted-Inference-by-Model-Plausibility (WIMP) - that takes rank uncertainty into account in a data-driven way. In simulations the WIMP outperforms all other methods considered, delivering intervals that are robust to rank uncertainty, yet not overly conservative. We also study potential ramifications of rank uncertainty on applied macroeconomic analysis by re-assessing the effects of fiscal policy shocks.
Tạo bộ sưu tập với mã QR

THƯ VIỆN - TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC CÔNG NGHỆ TP.HCM

ĐT: (028) 36225755 | Email: tt.thuvien@hutech.edu.vn

Copyright @2024 THƯ VIỆN HUTECH