Introducing shrinkage in heavy-tailed state space models to predict equity excess returns

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Tác giả: Florian Huber, Gregor Kastner, Michael Pfarrhofer

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 511.4 Approximations formerly also 513.24 and expansions

Thông tin xuất bản: 2018

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Báo, Tạp chí

ID: 161972

We forecast S&P 500 excess returns using a flexible Bayesian econometric state space model with non-Gaussian features at several levels. More precisely, we control for overparameterization via novel global-local shrinkage priors on the state innovation variances as well as the time-invariant part of the state space model. The shrinkage priors are complemented by heavy tailed state innovations that cater for potential large breaks in the latent states. Moreover, we allow for leptokurtic stochastic volatility in the observation equation. The empirical findings indicate that several variants of the proposed approach outperform typical competitors frequently used in the literature, both in terms of point and density forecasts.
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