Thought Viruses and Asset Prices

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Tác giả: Wolfgang Kuhle

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 005.84 Computer viruses

Thông tin xuất bản: 2018

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 162507

We use insights from epidemiology, namely the SIR model, to study how agents infect each other with "investment ideas." Once an investment idea "goes viral," equilibrium prices exhibit the typical "fever peak," which is characteristic for speculative excesses. Using our model, we identify a time line of symptoms that indicate whether a boom is in its early or later stages. Regarding the market's top, we find that prices start to decline while the number of infected agents, who buy the asset, is still rising. Moreover, the presence of fully rational agents (i) accelerates booms (ii) lowers peak prices and (iii) produces broad, drawn-out, market tops.
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