Volatility Models Applied to Geophysics and High Frequency Financial Market Data

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Tác giả: Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Ionut Florescu, Hector Gonzalez-Huizar, Maria C Mariani, Osei K Tweneboah

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 001.43 Historical, descriptive, experimental methods

Thông tin xuất bản: 2019

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 162573

Comment: 30 Pages, 23 figuresThis work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling of stationary time series with consistent properties facilitates prediction with much certainty. Using the GARCH and stochastic volatility model, we forecast one-step-ahead suggested volatility with +/- 2 standard prediction errors, which is enacted via Maximum Likelihood Estimation. We compare the stochastic volatility model relying on the filtering technique as used in the conditional volatility with the GARCH model. We conclude that the stochastic volatility is a better forecasting tool than GARCH (1, 1), since it is less conditioned by autoregressive past information.
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