May's Instability in Large Economies

 0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, José Moran

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 330 Economics

Thông tin xuất bản: 2019

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 162576

Will a large economy be stable? Building on Robert May's original argument for large ecosystems, we conjecture that evolutionary and behavioural forces conspire to drive the economy towards marginal stability. We study networks of firms in which inputs for production are not easily substitutable, as in several real-world supply chains. Relying on results from Random Matrix Theory, we argue that such networks generically become dysfunctional when their size increases, when the heterogeneity between firms becomes too strong or when substitutability of their production inputs is reduced. At marginal stability and for large heterogeneities, we find that the distribution of firm sizes develops a power-law tail, as observed empirically. Crises can be triggered by small idiosyncratic shocks, which lead to "avalanches" of defaults characterized by a power-law distribution of total output losses. This scenario would naturally explain the well-known "small shocks, large business cycles" puzzle, as anticipated long ago by Bak, Chen, Scheinkman and Woodford.
Tạo bộ sưu tập với mã QR

THƯ VIỆN - TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC CÔNG NGHỆ TP.HCM

ĐT: (028) 36225755 | Email: tt.thuvien@hutech.edu.vn

Copyright @2024 THƯ VIỆN HUTECH