Semi-parametric Realized Nonlinear Conditional Autoregressive Expectile and Expected Shortfall

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Tác giả: Richard Gerlach, Chao Wang

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 003.75 Nonlinear systems

Thông tin xuất bản: 2019

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Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 163027

A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and the latent conditional expectile. Nonlinear threshold specification is further incorporated into the proposed framework. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is adapted for estimation, whose properties are assessed and compared with maximum likelihood via a simulation study. One-day-ahead VaR and ES forecasting studies, with seven market indices, provide empirical support to the proposed models.Comment: 41 pages, 6 figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1805.08653, arXiv:1807.02422, arXiv:1612.08488
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