Confidence Collapse in a Multi-Household, Self-Reflexive DSGE Model

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Tác giả: Michael Benzaquen, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Federico Guglielmo Morelli, Marco Tarzia

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 155.94 Influence of community and housing

Thông tin xuất bản: 2019

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Báo, Tạp chí

ID: 163110

 Comment: 6 pages, 3 figuresWe investigate a multi-household DSGE model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich, and leads to a variety of realistic output dynamics: high output with no crises
  high output with increased volatility and deep, short lived recessions
  alternation of high and low output states where relatively mild drop in economic conditions can lead to a temporary confidence collapse and steep decline in economic activity. The crisis probability depends exponentially on the parameters of the model, which means that markets cannot efficiently price the associated risk premium. We conclude by stressing that within our framework, {\it narratives} become an important monetary policy tool, that can help steering the economy back on track.
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