Analyzing China's Consumer Price Index Comparatively with that of United States

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Tác giả: Song Xi Chen, Yundong Tu, Zhenzhong Wang

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 199.51 *Other geographic areas

Thông tin xuất bản: 2019

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 163540

This paper provides a thorough analysis on the dynamic structures and predictability of China's Consumer Price Index (CPI-CN), with a comparison to those of the United States. Despite the differences in the two leading economies, both series can be well modeled by a class of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Covariates (S-ARIMAX). The CPI-CN series possess regular patterns of dynamics with stable annual cycles and strong Spring Festival effects, with fitting and forecasting errors largely comparable to their US counterparts. Finally, for the CPI-CN, the diffusion index (DI) approach offers improved predictions than the S-ARIMAX models.
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