Combining Shrinkage and Sparsity in Conjugate Vector Autoregressive Models

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Tác giả: Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Luca Onorante

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 511.4 Approximations formerly also 513.24 and expansions

Thông tin xuất bản: 2020

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Báo, Tạp chí

ID: 163981

Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a straightforward means of post-processing posterior estimates of a conjugate Bayesian VAR to effectively perform equation-specific covariate selection. Compared to existing techniques using shrinkage alone, our approach combines shrinkage and sparsity in both the VAR coefficients and the error variance-covariance matrices, greatly reducing estimation uncertainty in large dimensions while maintaining computational tractability. We illustrate our approach by means of two applications. The first application uses synthetic data to investigate the properties of the model across different data-generating processes, the second application analyzes the predictive gains from sparsification in a forecasting exercise for US data.
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