We conduct an extensive meta-regression analysis of counterfactual programme evaluations from Italy, considering both published and grey literature on enterprise and innovation policies. We specify a multilevel model for the probability of finding positive effect estimates, also assessing correlation possibly induced by co-authorship networks. We find that the probability of positive effects is considerable, especially for weaker firms and outcomes that are directly targeted by public programmes. However, these policies are less likely to trigger change in the long run.