Authoritarian Governments Appear to Manipulate COVID Data

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Tác giả: Arnav Agrawal, Mudit Kapoor, Anup Malani, Shamika Ravi

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 321.9 *Authoritarian government

Thông tin xuất bản: 2020

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 164869

Because SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) statistics affect economic policies and political outcomes, governments have an incentive to control them. Manipulation may be less likely in democracies, which have checks to ensure transparency. We show that data on disease burden bear indicia of data modification by authoritarian governments relative to democratic governments. First, data on COVID-19 cases and deaths from authoritarian governments show significantly less variation from a 7 day moving average. Because governments have no reason to add noise to data, lower deviation is evidence that data may be massaged. Second, data on COVID-19 deaths from authoritarian governments do not follow Benford's law, which describes the distribution of leading digits of numbers. Deviations from this law are used to test for accounting fraud. Smoothing and adjustments to COVID-19 data may indicate other alterations to these data and a need to account for such alterations when tracking the disease.Comment: 23 pages (including 5 figures and 3 tables)
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