The Adaptive Doubly Robust Estimator for Policy Evaluation in Adaptive Experiments and a Paradox Concerning Logging Policy

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Tác giả: Masahiro Kato, Kenichiro McAlinn, Shota Yasui

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 634.98 Forest exploitation and products

Thông tin xuất bản: 2020

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Báo, Tạp chí

ID: 165340

The doubly robust (DR) estimator, which consists of two nuisance parameters, the conditional mean outcome and the logging policy (the probability of choosing an action), is crucial in causal inference. This paper proposes a DR estimator for dependent samples obtained from adaptive experiments. To obtain an asymptotically normal semiparametric estimator from dependent samples with non-Donsker nuisance estimators, we propose adaptive-fitting as a variant of sample-splitting. We also report an empirical paradox that our proposed DR estimator tends to show better performances compared to other estimators utilizing the true logging policy. While a similar phenomenon is known for estimators with i.i.d. samples, traditional explanations based on asymptotic efficiency cannot elucidate our case with dependent samples. We confirm this hypothesis through simulation studies.
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