On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty

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Tác giả: Niko Hauzenberger, Michael Pfarrhofer, Anna Stelzer

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 332.46 Monetary policy

Thông tin xuất bản: 2020

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Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 165685

Comment: JEL: C32, E32, E52, E58 KEYWORDS: Euro area, monetary policy, Bayesian smooth-transition vector autoregression, hierarchical global-local shrinkageIn this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) conditional on the prevailing level of uncertainty. To obtain exogenous variation in central bank policy, we rely on high-frequency surprises in financial market data for the euro area (EA) around policy announcement dates. We trace the dynamic effects of shocks to the short-term policy rate, forward guidance and quantitative easing on several key macroeconomic and financial quantities alongside survey-based measures of expectations. For this purpose, we propose a Bayesian smooth-transition vector autoregression (ST-VAR). Our results suggest that transmission channels are impaired when uncertainty is elevated. While conventional monetary policy is less effective during such periods, and sometimes also forward guidance, quantitative easing measures seem to work comparatively well in uncertain times.
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