Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity and Wealth Inequality

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Tác giả: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Roger Farmer

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 330.16 Theories of wealth

Thông tin xuất bản: 2020

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 165819

Comment: Second revised version, 49 pages, 7 figures, 6 Appendices, resubmitted to JPEWe construct a model of an exchange economy in which agents trade assets contingent on an observable signal, the probability of which depends on public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi-non-ergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. These disagreements generate large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics which make successful bold bets highly profitable.
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