Uncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR Model

• Tác giả: Sean Elliott, Christian Gourieroux
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 658.5 Management of production
• Thông tin xuất bản: 2020
• Bộ sưu tập: Metadata
• ID: 165847

Tóm tắt

The aim of this paper is to understand the extreme variability on the estimated reproduction ratio $R_0$ observed in practice. For expository purpose we consider a discrete time stochastic version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, and introduce different approximate maximum likelihood (AML) estimators of $R_0$. We carefully discuss the properties of these estimators and illustrate by a Monte-Carlo study the width of confidence intervals on $R_0$.