Dynamic Ordering Learning in Multivariate Forecasting

 0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả: Bruno P. C Levy, Hedibert F Lopes

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 006.31 Machine learning

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 165972

In many fields where the main goal is to produce sequential forecasts for decision making problems, the good understanding of the contemporaneous relations among different series is crucial for the estimation of the covariance matrix. In recent years, the modified Cholesky decomposition appeared as a popular approach to covariance matrix estimation. However, its main drawback relies on the imposition of the series ordering structure. In this work, we propose a highly flexible and fast method to deal with the problem of ordering uncertainty in a dynamic fashion with the use of Dynamic Order Probabilities. We apply the proposed method in two different forecasting contexts. The first is a dynamic portfolio allocation problem, where the investor is able to learn the contemporaneous relationships among different currencies improving final decisions and economic performance. The second is a macroeconomic application, where the econometrician can adapt sequentially to new economic environments, switching the contemporaneous relations among macroeconomic variables over time.
Tạo bộ sưu tập với mã QR

THƯ VIỆN - TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC CÔNG NGHỆ TP.HCM

ĐT: (028) 36225755 | Email: tt.thuvien@hutech.edu.vn

Copyright @2024 THƯ VIỆN HUTECH