The Wisdom of the Crowd and Higher-Order Beliefs

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Tác giả: Yi-Chun Chen, Manuel Mueller-Frank, Mallesh M Pai

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 398.41 Folk beliefs

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 166157

The classic wisdom-of-the-crowd problem asks how a principal can "aggregate" information about the unknown state of the world from agents without understanding the information structure among them. We propose a new simple procedure called Population-Mean-Based Aggregation to achieve this goal. The procedure only requires eliciting agents' beliefs about the state, and also eliciting some agents' expectations of the average belief in the population. We show that this procedure fully aggregates information: in an infinite population, it always infers the true state of the world. The procedure can accommodate correlations in agents' information, misspecified beliefs, any finite number of possible states of the world, and only requires very weak assumptions on the information structure.
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