Identifying Wisdom (of the Crowd): A Regression Approach

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Tác giả: Jonathan Libgober

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 808.008 Rhetoric and collections of literary texts from more than two literatures

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 166955

Experts in a population hold (a) beliefs over a state (call these state beliefs), as well as (b) beliefs over the distribution of beliefs in the population (call these hypothetical beliefs). If these are generated via updating a common prior using a fixed information structure, then the information structure can (generically) be derived by regressing hypothetical beliefs on state beliefs, provided there are at least as many signals as states. In addition, the prior solves an eigenvector equation derived from a matrix determined by the state beliefs and the hypothetical beliefs. Thus, the ex-ante informational environment (i.e., how signals are generated) can be determined using ex-post data (i.e., the beliefs in the population). I discuss implications of this finding, as well as what is identified when there are more states than signals.
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