Improvements to Modern Portfolio Theory based models applied to electricity systems

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Tác giả: Gabriel Malta Castro, Claude Klöckl, Amaro Olimpio Pereira Jr, Peter Regner, Johannes Schmidt

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 571.47 *Effects of electricity and magnetism

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 166980

Comment: Comments welcome, 25 pagesWith the increase of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) share in electricity systems, manystudies were developed in order to determine their optimal technological and spatial mix. Modern PortfolioTheory (MPT) has been frequently applied in this context. However, some crucial aspects, important inenergy planning, are not addressed by these analyses. We, therefore, propose several improvements andevaluate how each change in formulation impacts results. More specifically, we address generation costs, system demand, and firm energy output, present a formal model and apply it to the case of Brazil. Wefound that, after including our proposed modifications, the resulting efficient frontier differs strongly fromthe one obtained in the original formulation. Portfolios with high output standard deviation are not ableto provide a firm output level at competitive costs. Furthermore, we show that diversification plays animportant role in smoothing output from VRES portfolios
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