Optimal Lockdown Policies driven by Socioeconomic Costs

 0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả: Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera, Elena Gubar, Laura Policardo, Vladislav Taynitskiy

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 342.11 Constitutional and administrative law

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 166986

 In this research paper we modify a classical SIR model to better adapt to the dynamics of COVID-19, that is we propose the heterogeneous SQAIRD model where COVID-19 spreads over a population of economic agents, namely: the elderly, adults and young people. We then compute and simulate an optimal control problem faced by a Government, where its objective is to minimize the costs generated by the pandemics using as control a compulsory quarantine measure (that is, a lockdown). We first analyze the problem from a theoretical perspective, claiming that different lockdown policies (total lockdown, no lockdown or partial lockdown) may justified by different cost (concave or convex) structures of the economies. We then focus on a particular cost structure (convex costs) and we simulate a targeted optimal policy vs. a uniform optimal policy, by dividing the whole population in three demographic groups (young, adults and old). We also simulate the dynamic of the pandemic with no policy implemented. Simulations highlighted the fact that: a) a policy of lockdown is always better than the \emph{laissez faire} policy, because it limits the costs that the pandemic generates in an uncontrolled situation
  b) a targeted policy based on age of the individuals outperforms a uniform policy in terms of costs that it generates, being a targeted policy less costly and equally effective in the control of the pandemic.
Tạo bộ sưu tập với mã QR

THƯ VIỆN - TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC CÔNG NGHỆ TP.HCM

ĐT: (028) 36225755 | Email: tt.thuvien@hutech.edu.vn

Copyright @2024 THƯ VIỆN HUTECH