A Simple Model of Monetary Policy under Phillips-Curve Causal Disagreements

 0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả: Ran Spiegler

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 332.46 Monetary policy

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Báo, Tạp chí

ID: 166994

I study a static textbook model of monetary policy and relax the conventional assumption that the private sector has rational expectations. Instead, the private sector forms inflation forecasts according to a misspecified subjective model that disagrees with the central bank's (true) model over the causal underpinnings of the Phillips Curve. Following the AI/Statistics literature on Bayesian Networks, I represent the private sector's model by a direct acyclic graph (DAG). I show that when the private sector's model reverses the direction of causality between inflation and output, the central bank's optimal policy can exhibit an attenuation effect that is sensitive to the noisiness of the true inflation-output equations.
Tạo bộ sưu tập với mã QR

THƯ VIỆN - TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC CÔNG NGHỆ TP.HCM

ĐT: (028) 36225755 | Email: tt.thuvien@hutech.edu.vn

Copyright @2024 THƯ VIỆN HUTECH