Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic

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Tác giả: Giorgio Fabbri, Salvatore Federico, Davide Fiaschi, Fausto Gozzi

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 331.1279 Labor force and market

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 167337

Comment: 33 pages, 5 figuresWe propose a model, which nests a susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) epidemic model into a dynamic macroeconomic equilibrium framework with agents' mobility. The latter affect both their income and their probability of infecting and being infected. Strategic complementarities among individual mobility choices drive the evolution of aggregate economic activity, while infection externalities caused by individual mobility affect disease diffusion. The continuum of rational forward-looking agents coordinates on the Nash equilibrium of a discrete time, finite-state, infinite-horizon Mean Field Game. We prove the existence of an equilibrium and provide a recursive construction method for the search of an equilibrium(a), which also guides our numerical investigations. We calibrate the model by using Italian experience on COVID-19 epidemic and we discuss policy implications.
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