Detection of Structural Regimes and Analyzing the Impact of Crude Oil Market on Canadian Stock Market: Markov Regime-Switching Approach

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Tác giả: Hana Ghaneei, Mohammadreza Mahmoudi

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 342.11 Constitutional and administrative law

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 167740

 Comment: 14 pages,10 tables, 2 figuresThis study aims to analyze the impact of the crude oil market on the Toronto Stock Exchange Index (TSX)c based on monthly data from 1970 to 2021 using Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MSI-VAR) model. The results indicate that TSX return contains two regimes, including: positive return (regime 1), when growth rate of stock index is positive
  and negative return (regime 2), when growth rate of stock index is negative. Moreover, regime 1 is more volatile than regime 2. The findings also show the crude oil market has negative effect on the stock market in regime 1, while it has positive effect on the stock market in regime 2. In addition, we can see this effect in regime 1 more significantly in comparison to regime 2. Furthermore, two period lag of oil price decreases stock return in regime 1, while it increases stock return in regime 2.
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