An AI-assisted Economic Model of Endogenous Mobility and Infectious Diseases: The Case of COVID-19 in the United States

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Tác giả: Lin William Cong, Ke Tang, Bing Wang, Jingyuan Wang

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 616.91 *Virus diseases formerly 616.92

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 167857

Comment: Preprint, not peer reviewedWe build a deep-learning-based SEIR-AIM model integrating the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiology model with forecast modules of infection, community mobility, and unemployment. Through linking Google's multi-dimensional mobility index to economic activities, public health status, and mitigation policies, our AI-assisted model captures the populace's endogenous response to economic incentives and health risks. In addition to being an effective predictive tool, our analyses reveal that the long-term effective reproduction number of COVID-19 equilibrates around one before mass vaccination using data from the United States. We identify a "policy frontier" and identify reopening schools and workplaces to be the most effective. We also quantify protestors' employment-value-equivalence of the Black Lives Matter movement and find that its public health impact to be negligible.
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