On the Behavioral Consequences of Reverse Causality

 0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả: Ran Spiegler

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 155.96 Influence of restrictive environments

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Báo, Tạp chí

ID: 168067

Reverse causality is a common causal misperception that distorts the evaluation of private actions and public policies. This paper explores the implications of this error when a decision maker acts on it and therefore affects the very statistical regularities from which he draws faulty inferences. Using a quadratic-normal parameterization and applying the Bayesian-network approach of Spiegler (2016), I demonstrate the subtle equilibrium effects of a certain class of reverse-causality errors, with illustrations in diverse areas: development psychology, social policy, monetary economics and IO. In particular, the decision context may protect the decision maker from his own reverse-causality causal error. That is, the cost of reverse-causality errors can be lower for everyday decision makers than for an outside observer who evaluates their choices.
Tạo bộ sưu tập với mã QR

THƯ VIỆN - TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC CÔNG NGHỆ TP.HCM

ĐT: (028) 36225755 | Email: tt.thuvien@hutech.edu.vn

Copyright @2024 THƯ VIỆN HUTECH