Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States

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Tác giả: Graziano Moramarco

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 338.542 Business cycles

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 168114

Comment: The final version of this paper is in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. Available online 5 July 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.05.007Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United States. A cyclically adjusted house price-to-rent ratio and the liabilities-to-income ratio of the non-financial non-corporate business sector provide the best in-sample and out-of-sample predictions of GDP growth over horizons of one to five years, based on a wide variety of rankings. Small forecasting models that include these indicators outperform popular high-dimensional models and forecast combinations. The predictive power of the two ratios appears strong during both recessions and expansions, stable over time, and consistent with well-established macro-finance theory.
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