Optimal Decision Rules Under Partial Identification

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Tác giả: Kohei Yata

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 003.1 System identification

Thông tin xuất bản: 2021

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Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 168181

 I consider a class of statistical decision problems in which the policymaker must decide between two policies to maximize social welfare (e.g., the population mean of an outcome) based on a finite sample. The framework introduced in this paper allows for various types of restrictions on the structural parameter (e.g., the smoothness of a conditional mean potential outcome function) and accommodates settings with partial identification of social welfare. As the main theoretical result, I derive a finite-sample optimal decision rule under the minimax regret criterion. This rule has a simple form, yet achieves optimality among all decision rules
  no ad hoc restrictions are imposed on the class of decision rules. I apply my results to the problem of whether to change an eligibility cutoff in a regression discontinuity setup, and illustrate them in an empirical application to a school construction program in Burkina Faso.
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