Considering Henan Province as the research area, based on land use data with a resolution of 30 m in 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the distribution of the production-living-ecological space and the quality of the ecological environment in Henan Province using land transfer matrices and an eco-environmental effect model. Furthermore, based on 2020 land use data, the PLUS model was used to simulate land use data for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 under three scenarios： natural development, production priority, and ecological priority. Finally, we calculated the ecological environment quality index and ecological contribution rate. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of production space decreased by 4 879 km