Modelplasticity and Abductive Decision Making

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Tác giả: Mukhopadhyay, Subhadeep

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 153.8 Will (Volition)

Thông tin xuất bản: 2022

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Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 194630

`All models are wrong but some are useful' (George Box 1979). But, how to find those useful ones starting from an imperfect model? How to make informed data-driven decisions equipped with an imperfect model? These fundamental questions appear to be pervasive in virtually all empirical fields -- including economics, finance, marketing, healthcare, climate change, defense planning, and operations research. This article presents a modern approach (builds on two core ideas: abductive thinking and density-sharpening principle) and practical guidelines to tackle these issues in a systematic manner.Comment: Final accepted version. The supplementary section contains some notes on the connections and differences between the Bayesian statistical approach vs. the Abductive statistical approach to model misspecification, robustness, and decision-making
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