Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

• Tác giả: Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, Emil Verner
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 614.49 History of epidemics
• Thông tin xuất bản: 2022
• Bộ sưu tập: Báo, Tạp chí
• ID: 195575

Tóm tắt

We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50% and cumulative excess mortality by 24% to 34%. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.