Policy Learning with New Treatments

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Tác giả: Samuel Higbee

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 153.15 Learning

Thông tin xuất bản: 2022

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Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 195900

I study the problem of a decision maker choosing a policy which allocates treatment to a heterogeneous population on the basis of experimental data that includes only a subset of possible treatment values. The effects of new treatments are partially identified by shape restrictions on treatment response. Policies are compared according to the minimax regret criterion, and I show that the empirical analog of the population decision problem has a tractable linear- and integer-programming formulation. I prove the maximum regret of the estimated policy converges to the lowest possible maximum regret at a rate which is the maximum of N^-1/2 and the rate at which conditional average treatment effects are estimated in the experimental data. I apply my results to design targeted subsidies for electrical grid connections in rural Kenya, and estimate that 97% of the population should be given a treatment not implemented in the experiment.
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