Time-Varying Coefficient DAR Model and Stability Measures for Stablecoin Prices: An Application to Tether

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Tác giả: Antoine Djobenou, Emre Inan, Joann Jasiak

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 332.46 Monetary policy

Thông tin xuất bản: 2023

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 196299

Comment: 53 pages, 10 figuresThis paper examines the dynamics of Tether, the stablecoin with the largest market capitalization. We show that the distributional and dynamic properties of Tether/USD rates have been evolving from 2017 to 2021. We use local analysis methods to detect and describe the local patterns, such as short-lived trends, time-varying volatility and persistence. To accommodate these patterns, we consider a time varying parameter Double Autoregressive tvDAR(1) model under the assumption of local stationarity of Tether/USD rates. We estimate the tvDAR model non-parametrically and test hypotheses on the functional parameters. In the application to Tether, the model provides a good fit and reliable out-of-sample forecasts at short horizons, while being robust to time-varying persistence and volatility. In addition, the model yields a simple plug-in measure of stability for Tether and other stablecoins for assessing and comparing their stability.
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