Identification in a Binary Choice Panel Data Model with a Predetermined Covariate

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Tác giả: Stéphane Bonhomme, Kevin Dano, Bryan S Graham

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 003.1 System identification

Thông tin xuất bản: 2023

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Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 196356

Comment: 41 pages, 4 figures. Initial draft prepared for a conference in honor of Manuel Arellano at the Bank of Spain (July 2022)We study identification in a binary choice panel data model with a single \emph{predetermined} binary covariate (i.e., a covariate sequentially exogenous conditional on lagged outcomes and covariates). The choice model is indexed by a scalar parameter $\theta$, whereas the distribution of unit-specific heterogeneity, as well as the feedback process that maps lagged outcomes into future covariate realizations, are left unrestricted. We provide a simple condition under which $\theta$ is never point-identified, no matter the number of time periods available. This condition is satisfied in most models, including the logit one. We also characterize the identified set of $\theta$ and show how to compute it using linear programming techniques. While $\theta$ is not generally point-identified, its identified set is informative in the examples we analyze numerically, suggesting that meaningful learning about $\theta$ may be possible even in short panels with feedback. As a complement, we report calculations of identified sets for an average partial effect, and find informative sets in this case as well.
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