A spectral approach to stock market performance

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Tác giả: Clara Escanuela Nieves, Ignacio Escanuela Romana

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 523.87 Spectral types

Thông tin xuất bản: 2023

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 197219

Comment: 26 pages, 13 figuresWe pose the estimation and predictability of stock market performance. Three cases are taken: US, Japan, Germany, the monthly index of the value of realized investment in stocks, prices plus the value of dividend payments (OECD data). Once deflated and trend removed, harmonic analysis is applied. The series are taken with and without the periods with evidence of exogenous shocks. The series are erratic and the random walk hypothesis is reasonably falsified. The estimation reveals relevant hidden periodicities, which approximate stock value movements. From July 2008 onwards, it is successfully analyzed whether the subsequent fall in share value would have been predictable. Again, the data are irregular and scattered, but the sum of the first five harmonics in relevance anticipates the fall in stock market values that followed.
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