Designing Discontinuities

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Tác giả: Ibtihal Ferwana, Suyoung Park, Lav R Varshney, Ting-Yi Wu

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 003.75 Nonlinear systems

Thông tin xuất bản: 2023

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 197293

Comment: A short version is accepted in Neural Compression ICML Worksop July 19th, 2023Discontinuities can be fairly arbitrary but also cause a significant impact on outcomes in larger systems. Indeed, their arbitrariness is why they have been used to infer causal relationships among variables in numerous settings. Regression discontinuity from econometrics assumes the existence of a discontinuous variable that splits the population into distinct partitions to estimate the causal effects of a given phenomenon. Here we consider the design of partitions for a given discontinuous variable to optimize a certain effect previously studied using regression discontinuity. To do so, we propose a quantization-theoretic approach to optimize the effect of interest, first learning the causal effect size of a given discontinuous variable and then applying dynamic programming for optimal quantization design of discontinuities to balance the gain and loss in that effect size. We also develop a computationally-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm for the dynamic programming formulation of optimal quantization. We demonstrate our approach by designing optimal time zone borders for counterfactuals of social capital, social mobility, and health. This is based on regression discontinuity analyses we perform on novel data, which may be of independent empirical interest.
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