Wishful Thinking is Risky Thinking

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Tác giả: Jarrod Burgh, Emerson Melo

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 154.3 Daydreams, fantasies, reveries

Thông tin xuất bản: 2023

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 197631

Comment: This paper, previously circulated under the title "Wishful Thinking is Risky Thinking: A Statistical-Distance Based Approach," has been divided into two separate and complementary works: "Wishful Thinking is Risky Thinking" and "Censored Beliefs and Wishful Thinking."We develop a model of wishful thinking that incorporates the costs and benefits of biased beliefs. We establish the connection between distorted beliefs and risk, revealing how wishful thinking can be understood in terms of risk measures. Our model accommodates extreme beliefs, allowing wishful-thinking decision-makers to assign zero probability to undesirable states and positive probability to otherwise impossible states.
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