Optimal Conditional Inference in Adaptive Experiments

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Tác giả: Isaiah Andrews, Jiafeng Chen

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 001.434 Experimental method

Thông tin xuất bản: 2023

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Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 198233

Comment: An extended abstract of this paper was presented at CODE@MIT 2021We study batched bandit experiments and consider the problem of inference conditional on the realized stopping time, assignment probabilities, and target parameter, where all of these may be chosen adaptively using information up to the last batch of the experiment. Absent further restrictions on the experiment, we show that inference using only the results of the last batch is optimal. When the adaptive aspects of the experiment are known to be location-invariant, in the sense that they are unchanged when we shift all batch-arm means by a constant, we show that there is additional information in the data, captured by one additional linear function of the batch-arm means. In the more restrictive case where the stopping time, assignment probabilities, and target parameter are known to depend on the data only through a collection of polyhedral events, we derive computationally tractable and optimal conditional inference procedures.
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