Causal Panel Analysis under Parallel Trends: Lessons from A Large Reanalysis Study

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Tác giả: Albert Chiu, Xingchen Lan, Ziyi Liu, Yiqing Xu

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 001.432 Historical method

Thông tin xuất bản: 2023

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 198274

 Two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models are widely used in political science to establish causality, but recent methodological discussions highlight their limitations under heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and violations of the parallel trends (PT) assumption. This growing literature has introduced numerous new estimators and procedures, causing confusion among researchers about the reliability of existing results and best practices. To address these concerns, we replicated and reanalyzed 49 studies from leading journals using TWFE models for observational panel data with binary treatments. Using six HTE-robust estimators, diagnostic tests, and sensitivity analyses, we find: (i) HTE-robust estimators yield qualitatively similar but highly variable results
  (ii) while a few studies show clear signs of PT violations, many lack evidence to support this assumption
  and (iii) many studies are underpowered when accounting for HTE and potential PT violations. We emphasize the importance of strong research designs and rigorous validation of key identifying assumptions.
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