Estimating Individual Responses when Tomorrow Matters

• Tác giả: Stephane Bonhomme, Angela Denis
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 003.2 Forecasting and forecasts
• Thông tin xuất bản: 2023
• Bộ sưu tập: Metadata
• ID: 198333

Tóm tắt

We propose a regression-based approach to estimate how individuals' expectations influence their responses to a counterfactual change. We provide conditions under which average partial effects based on regression estimates recover structural effects. We propose a practical three-step estimation method that relies on panel data on subjective expectations. We illustrate our approach in a model of consumption and saving, focusing on the impact of an income tax that not only changes current income but also affects beliefs about future income. Applying our approach to Italian survey data, we find that individuals' beliefs matter for evaluating the impact of tax policies on consumption decisions.