Counterfactual Sensitivity in Quantitative Trade and Spatial Models

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Tác giả: Bas Sanders

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 001.43 Historical, descriptive, experimental methods

Thông tin xuất bản: 2023

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 198455

Comment: 42 pages, 9 figuresCounterfactuals in quantitative trade and spatial models are functions of the current state of the world and the model parameters. Common practice treats the current state of the world as perfectly observed, but there is good reason to believe that it is measured with error. This paper provides tools for quantifying uncertainty about counterfactuals when the current state of the world is measured with error. I recommend an empirical Bayes approach to uncertainty quantification, and show that it is both practical and theoretically justified. I apply the proposed method to the settings in Adao, Costinot, and Donaldson (2017) and Allen and Arkolakis (2022) and find non-trivial uncertainty about counterfactuals.
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