Ensuring the quality and safety of soil is crucial for achieving ecological sustainability. This study systematically analyzed and evaluated the ecological risks, early warning mechanisms, and mitigation strategies for heavy metals in the Liaohe River Basin of Jilin Province, employing methods such as multiple index models, environmental capacity prediction models, and spatiotemporal cube models. The results indicate that local soil heavy metals range from non-polluted to moderately polluted (0.5-1), with Cr, Cd, and Ni exhibiting relatively high risks. Early warning results reveal that Cr is in a state of low capacity (capacity index = 0.67), and the environmental capacity of soil heavy metals is projected to decline over the next 15 years. Notably, after 15 years, the environmental capacities of As and Cd are expected to decrease to 4.579 kg/hm