Estimating Counterfactual Matrix Means with Short Panel Data

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Tác giả: Lihua Lei, Brad Ross

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 001.433 Descriptive method

Thông tin xuất bản: 2023

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 200700

Comment: 72 pages, 6 figuresWe develop a new, spectral approach for identifying and estimating average counterfactual outcomes under a low-rank factor model with short panel data and general outcome missingness patterns. Applications include event studies and studies of outcomes of "matches" between agents of two types, e.g. workers and firms, typically conducted under less-flexible Two-Way-Fixed-Effects (TWFE) models of outcomes. Given an infinite population of units and a finite number of outcomes, we show our approach identifies all counterfactual outcome means, including those not estimable by existing methods, if a particular graph constructed based on overlaps in observed outcomes between subpopulations is connected. Our analogous, computationally efficient estimation procedure yields consistent, asymptotically normal estimates of counterfactual outcome means under fixed-$T$ (number of outcomes), large-$N$ (sample size) asymptotics. In a semi-synthetic simulation study based on matched employer-employee data, our estimator has lower bias and only slightly higher variance than a TWFE-model-based estimator when estimating average log-wages.
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