Temporal Aggregation for the Synthetic Control Method

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Tác giả: Eli Ben-Michael, Avi Feller, Liyang Sun

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 635.967483 Flowers and ornamental plants

Thông tin xuất bản: 2024

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Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 201331

 Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, Prepared for 2024 AEA Papers and Proceedings "Treatment Effects: Theory and Implementation"The synthetic control method (SCM) is a popular approach for estimating the impact of a treatment on a single unit with panel data. Two challenges arise with higher frequency data (e.g., monthly versus yearly): (1) achieving excellent pre-treatment fit is typically more challenging
  and (2) overfitting to noise is more likely. Aggregating data over time can mitigate these problems but can also destroy important signal. In this paper, we bound the bias for SCM with disaggregated and aggregated outcomes and give conditions under which aggregating tightens the bounds. We then propose finding weights that balance both disaggregated and aggregated series.
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