Idiosyncratic Risk, Government Debt and Inflation

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Tác giả: Matthias Hänsel

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 332.41 Value of money

Thông tin xuất bản: 2024

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 201845

Comment: Number of page: 50 (main text, 81 incl. Appendices). Substantial revision of the previous version: updated model, different exercises, application to US post-2020 periodHow does public debt matter for price stability? If it is useful for the private sector to insure idiosyncratic risk, even transitory government debt expansions can exert upward pressure on interest rates and create inflation. As I demonstrate using an analytically tractable model, this holds in the presence of an active Taylor rule and does not require the absence of future fiscal consolidation. Further analysis using a quantitative 2-asset HANK model reveals the magnitude of the mechanism to crucially depend on the structure of the asset market: under common assumptions, the interest rate effects of public debt are either overly strong or overly weak. After disciplining this aspect based on evidence regarding its long-term relationship with treasury returns, my framework indicates relevant short-run effects of public debt on inflation under active monetary policy: In particular, in the HANK model the mechanism can account for US inflation remaining elevated in 2023 and afterwards.
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