Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure.

 0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả: Jinquan Chen, Xinying Du, Yaqing Jin, Mengxuan Lin, Pengyuan Nie, Lei Wang, Ligui Wang, Qunjiao Yan

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 242.332 Advent

Thông tin xuất bản: Italy : Journal of infection in developing countries , 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 220258

 INTRODUCTION: China had already experienced two COVID-19 epidemics since the promulgation of 10 new prevention and control measures in December 2022. METHODOLOGY: In response to the current frequent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants in China and the gradual relaxation of prevention and control policies, we built and ran a susceptible-exposed-infective-removed-susceptible-quarantined model incorporating self-isolation to predict future cases of COVID-19. RESULTS: Four waves of outbreaks were predicted to occur in November 2023, and in April, July, and November 2024. The first two waves were predicted to be more severe, with the maximum number of infected cases reaching 18.97% (269 million) and 8.77% (124 million) of the country's population, respectively, while the rest were predicted to affect a maximum of <
  3%. CONCLUSIONS: Future outbreaks are expected to occur at shorter intervals but last for longer durations. COVID-19 epidemics in China are expected to subside after November 2024.
Tạo bộ sưu tập với mã QR

THƯ VIỆN - TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC CÔNG NGHỆ TP.HCM

ĐT: (028) 36225755 | Email: tt.thuvien@hutech.edu.vn

Copyright @2024 THƯ VIỆN HUTECH