Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Events

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Tác giả: Juan C Perdomo

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 292.38 Classical religion (Greek and Roman religion)

Thông tin xuất bản: 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 226414

 Comment: 20 pagesSocial predictions do not passively describe the future
  they actively shape it. They inform actions and change individual expectations in ways that influence the likelihood of the predicted outcome. Given these dynamics, to what extent can social events be predicted? This question was discussed throughout the 20th century by authors like Merton, Morgenstern, Simon, and others who considered it a central issue in social science methodology. In this work, we provide a modern answer to this old problem. Using recent ideas from performative prediction and outcome indistinguishability, we establish that one can always efficiently predict social events accurately, regardless of how predictions influence data. While achievable, we also show that these predictions are often undesirable, highlighting the limitations of previous desiderata. We end with a discussion of various avenues forward.
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