Employment Multipliers over the Business Cycle

• Tác giả: Jiaming Soh
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 338.54 Economic fluctuations
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 227406
• Chủ đề: 1. BUSINESS CYCLES; 2. EMPLOYMENT

Tóm tắt

This paper estimates dynamic employment multipliers in a U.S. county during 1998-2015. On average, one exogenous tradable job gain creates 1.1 jobs in the rest of the county economy in the same year, but is offset by losses of 0.23 job one year later and 0.32 job two years later. The multiplier is modest during the 2002-2007 boom and is large during the Great Recession. It is smaller in the initial years of the Recovery but is larger in the latter years. Uncertainty and credit constraints are two possible hindrances to the propagation of job gains during the Recovery.