The World Bank commissioned this Least-Cost Electrification Study to identify the optimal route for achieving universal access to electricity by 2030 in Pakistan, through expansion of the existing distribution grid and off-grid solutions. A Mini-Grid Portfolio Readiness Assessment was commissioned in parallel to provide further granularity on the potential for mini-grids across the country, and its findings are part of this report. The studies were carried out over a two-year period (2021-2022) by a team of experts, based on methodologies developed and tested in a number of other countries. The results of the Least-Cost Electrification Study are based on a geospatial model that considers four options for delivering universal electrical service by 2030: (i) the densification of the existing electricity grid
(ii) extension of the existing grid
(iii) mini-grids, and (iv) individual off-grid systems. The Mini-Grid Portfolio Readiness Assessment identifies and ranks the current high priority mini-grid sites across Pakistan which can be leveraged by federal and provincial governments, electricity distribution companies, and the private sector to enhance electricity access. The two sets of analysis have been compared and calibrated to inform the outputs and the recommendations contained in this report.